This page provides a summary of UK economic growth for forex traders. Economic growth is of huge importance in understanding why currencies move. The first section summarises the most recent data, the second section looks at inflation and interest rates, the third section highlights the trend in the indicators that best correlate with GDP growth. This page is continually updated so please bookmark it to keep informed about the latest data and trends. Compare the UK with other countries by looking at the pages on the US economy or the eurozone economy.

Latest UK Economic Growth Data

Summary

UK economic growth predictions have been uncertain since the Brexit vote. GDP is predicted to grow by 1.3% in 2018 and 1.4% in 2019.

Latest Data

The latest figures showed that unemployment was 4.0% and average earnings for the past 3 months grew 2.7% compared to the previous year.

The NIESR GDP estimate for the three months up to the end of September was 0.7% q/q

Official manufacturing growth grew by 1.5% in the 3 months to August 2018 compared with a year earlier. Total industrial production grew by 1.0% compared with a year earlier.

The Manufacturing PMI is 53.8. The Construction PMI is 52.1. The Services PMI is 53.9. Values above 50 point to growth.

The Final Estimate showed that GDP grew by 0.4% q/q in Q2 2018.

The volume of retail sales rose by 3.4% in the three months to September compared to a year earlier.

Inflation and Interest Rates

The central bank is the Bank of England (BoE).  The BoE’s Inflation target is based on the annual change in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The target is 2% but this is symmetrical, and the bank considers inflation below 2% to be just as bad as inflation above 2%. The latest reading for CPI is 2.4% y/y, the same as last month.  Core CPI is 1.9% y/y.  In August 2018, the BoE raised interest rates to 0.75%.